Race header
DEMNominee
Kathy Castor
incumbent
60%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Brian Lambert
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Mike Beltran
40%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentKathy Castor
Hume Outlook
60% Kathy Castor · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Kathy Castor
60%
REP
Mike Beltran
40%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Castor 48.0% · Beltran 43.0%
Emerson College / Poll Vault · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCastorLIBLambertREPBeltran
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Kathy Castor$4,930,537.26
Brian Lambert$17,091.52
Mike Beltran$2,731,427.99
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Kathy Castor$4,579,831.79
Brian Lambert$14,614.84
Mike Beltran$999,910.27
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Kathy Castor$577,435.34
Brian Lambert$2,476.68
Mike Beltran$1,731,517.72
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Kathy Castor48.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Brian LambertNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-14)
Mike Beltran43.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Kathy CastorNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Brian LambertNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mike BeltranNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Castor | Lambert | Beltran | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=315 | 48.0% | not named | 43.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.