Race header
DEMNominee
Kelly Kirschner
32%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Mark Davis
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Sydney Gruters
68%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
68% Sydney Gruters · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Sydney Gruters
68%
DEM
Kelly Kirschner
32%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Kirschner 39.0% · Gruters 43.0%
Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-02
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMKirschnerINDDavisREPGruters
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Kelly Kirschner$876,363.29
Mark Davis$66,969.03
Sydney Gruters$1,618,888.17
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Kelly Kirschner$615,224.22
Mark Davis$65,269.61
Sydney Gruters$1,366,391.11
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Kelly Kirschner$261,139.07
Mark Davis$1,699.42
Sydney Gruters$252,497.06
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Kelly Kirschner39.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-02
Mark DavisNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-02)
Sydney Gruters43.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-02
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Kelly KirschnerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mark DavisNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Sydney GrutersNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Kirschner | Davis | Gruters | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02 | RV · n=530 | 39.0% | not named | 43.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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