Race header
DEMNominee
Matthew Montavon
9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Michael J. Quirk
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Greg Steube
incumbent
91%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGreg Steube
Hume Outlook
91% Greg Steube · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Greg Steube
91%
DEM
Matthew Montavon
9%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMMontavonINDQuirkREPSteube
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Matthew Montavon$156,274.33
Michael J. Quirk$32,487.55
Greg Steube$1,587,826.76
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Matthew Montavon$131,111.49
Michael J. Quirk$29,346.89
Greg Steube$1,047,067.22
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Matthew Montavon$25,122.84
Michael J. Quirk$3,140.66
Greg Steube$2,132,055.34
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Matthew MontavonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael J. QuirkNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Greg SteubeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Matthew MontavonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Michael J. QuirkNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Greg SteubeNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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