Race header
DEMNominee
Victor Arias
5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Seth Haskin
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jim Schwartzel
95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
95% Jim Schwartzel · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jim Schwartzel
95%
DEM
Victor Arias
5%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMAriasINDHaskinREPSchwartzel
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Victor Arias$69,983.08
Seth Haskin$8,000.00
Jim Schwartzel$2,828,902.86
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Victor Arias$54,565.93
Seth Haskin$7,348.57
Jim Schwartzel$2,322,691.45
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Victor Arias$15,417.15
Seth Haskin$651.43
Jim Schwartzel$506,211.41
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Victor AriasNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seth HaskinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jim SchwartzelNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Victor AriasNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Seth HaskinNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jim SchwartzelNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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