Race header
DEMNominee
Pia Dandiya
69%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Casey Askar
31%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
69% Pia Dandiya · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Pia Dandiya
69%
REP
Casey Askar
31%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Askar 50.0% · Dandiya 50.0%
Tavern Research · 2026-08-12
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMDandiyaREPAskar
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Pia Dandiya$4,619,822.46
Casey Askar$7,418,254.75
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Pia Dandiya$3,884,717.23
Casey Askar$5,527,092.81
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Pia Dandiya$735,105.23
Casey Askar$1,891,161.94
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Pia Dandiya50.0%Tavern Research · 2026-08-12
Casey Askar50.0%Tavern Research · 2026-08-12
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Pia DandiyaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Casey AskarNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Dandiya | Askar | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-12 | LV · n=551 | 50.0% | 50.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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