Race header
DEMNominee
Nicole Locklin
35%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Mario Diaz-Balart
incumbent
65%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMario Diaz-Balart
Hume Outlook
65% Mario Diaz-Balart · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Mario Diaz-Balart
65%
DEM
Nicole Locklin
35%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMLocklinINDHoseyREPDiaz-Balart
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Nicole Locklin$599,526.70through 2026-10-14
Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey$10,780.11through 2026-09-30
Mario Diaz-Balart$2,763,195.61through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Nicole Locklin$489,536.92through 2026-10-14
Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey$8,404.71through 2026-09-30
Mario Diaz-Balart$2,906,303.14through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Nicole Locklin$109,989.78through 2026-10-14
Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey$2,375.40through 2026-09-30
Mario Diaz-Balart$1,676,212.67through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Nicole LocklinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Deborah Ann Meidinger HoseyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mario Diaz-BalartNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Nicole LocklinNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Deborah Ann Meidinger HoseyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mario Diaz-BalartNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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