Race header
DEMNominee
Eliott Rodriguez
49%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Maria Elvira Salazar
incumbent
51%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMaria Elvira Salazar
Hume Outlook
51% Maria Elvira Salazar · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Maria Elvira Salazar
51%
DEM
Eliott Rodriguez
49%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Salazar 47.0% · Rodriguez 46.0%
Tulchin Research / House Majority PAC · 2026-09-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMRodriguezREPSalazar
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Eliott Rodriguez$1,567,392.71
Maria Elvira Salazar$2,519,401.34
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Eliott Rodriguez$945,601.63
Maria Elvira Salazar$2,249,750.07
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Eliott Rodriguez$621,791.08
Maria Elvira Salazar$1,680,478.41
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Eliott Rodriguez46.0%Tulchin Research · 2026-09-13
Maria Elvira Salazar47.0%Tulchin Research · 2026-09-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Eliott RodriguezNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Maria Elvira SalazarNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Rodriguez | Salazar | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchHouse Majority PAC | 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-13 | LV · n=600 | 46.0% | 47.0% | none |
| Blueprint Polling | 2026-03-06 to 2026-03-08 | RV · n=451 | 43.0% | 46.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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