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DEMNominee
Angie Nixon
19%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Neil J. Gillespie
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Ashley Moody
incumbent
81%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAshley Moody
Hume Outlook
81% Ashley Moody · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Ashley Moody
81%
DEM
Angie Nixon
19%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Moody 53.0% · Nixon 47.0%
ActiVote · 2026-10-27
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+5
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 57.7%
2022 general · margin 16.4%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMNixonINDGillespieREPMoody
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Angie Nixon$11,319,380.40
Neil J. Gillespie$13,283.81
Ashley Moody$14,524,031.96
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Angie Nixon$8,052,585.63
Neil J. Gillespie$12,650.24
Ashley Moody$13,707,676.85
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Angie Nixon$3,266,794.77
Neil J. Gillespie$633.57
Ashley Moody$816,355.11
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Angie Nixon47.0%ActiVote · 2026-10-27
Neil J. GillespieNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-27)
Ashley Moody53.0%ActiVote · 2026-10-27
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Angie NixonR+5seat-level
Neil J. GillespieR+5seat-level
Ashley MoodyR+5seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Nixon | Gillespie | Moody | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-27 | LV · n=400 | 47.0% | not named | 53.0% | none |
| Echelon InsightsNetChoice | 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23 | LV · n=515 | 43.0% | 3.0% | 51.0% | none |
| co/efficient | 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=1,014 | 40.0% | 2.0% | 48.0% | none |
| University of North Florida | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=1,414 | 45.0% | not named | 49.0% | none |
| MDWEDGE Communications | 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-10 | LV · n=800 | 42.0% | not named | 48.0% | none |
| St. Pete PollsFlorida Politics | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 | LV · n=836 | 45.0% | not named | 47.0% | none |
| Targoz Market ResearchThe James Madison Institute | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04 | RV · n=1,200 | 38.0% | not named | 50.0% | none |
| Targoz Market ResearchThe James Madison Institute | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04 | LV · n=857 | 42.0% | not named | 52.0% | none |
| Change ResearchFreedom Project USA | 2026-09-25 to 2026-09-27 | LV · n=1,063 | 47.0% | not named | 48.0% | none |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21 | LV · n=830 | 40.0% | not named | 51.0% | none |
8 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+5
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -5.228
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2022 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | REP | 4,474,847 | 57.68% |
| Val Demings | DEM | 3,201,522 | 41.27% |
| Dennis Misigoy | LIB | 32,177 | 0.41% |
| Steven B. Grant | OTH | 31,816 | 0.41% |
| Tuan TQ Nguyen | OTH | 17,385 | 0.22% |
| Edward A. Gray | OTH | 190 | 0.00% |
| Uloma Uma Ekpete | OTH | 42 | 0.00% |
| Moses Quiles | OTH | 33 | 0.00% |
Total votes 7,758,014 · winning margin 16.41% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Percentages are of the MEDSL total, which also counts 2 votes on lines the data file does not list; the named-candidate shares are therefore lower than a share of valid candidate votes.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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