GA-11 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Georgia District 11 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Chris Harden

5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

John Cowan

95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

95% John Cowan · RepublicanChance to win the seat, including a runoff if no one reaches a majority

REP John Cowan 95%

DEM Chris Harden 5%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+15 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 67.3% 2024 general · margin 34.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMHardenREPCowan

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Chris Harden$139,282.64

John Cowan$2,824,605.89

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Chris Harden$130,573.71

John Cowan$2,678,787.74

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Chris Harden$8,708.93

John Cowan$145,818.15

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Chris HardenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

John CowanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Chris HardenR+15seat-level

John CowanR+15seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+15

Lean (D minus R, points): -14.721

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Barry Loudermilk	REP	269,849	67.31%
Katy “Kate” L. Stamper	DEM	131,064	32.69%

Total votes 400,913 · winning margin 34.62% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.