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Race header
DEMDemocratic nominee
Jon Ossoff
incumbent
unopposed, May 19, 2026 primary
91%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPRepublican nominee
Mike Collins
challenger (sitting U.S. Representative, GA-10)
won June 16, 2026 runoff over Derek Dooley, 55.5% per Wikipedia
9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJon Ossoff
Why it is watchedOne of two Democratic-held seats up in a state Trump won in 2024 (by 2.2 points), and Republicans' best pickup target; Cook nonetheless moved it from Toss Up to Lean D on April 13, 2026 (Cook race page; Fox News, April 13, 2026). Ossoff was unopposed in the May 19 primary. Rep. Mike Collins (GA-10) won the June 16, 2026 GOP runoff over Derek Dooley by more than 10 points after a last-minute Trump endorsement, while Gov. Kemp had backed Dooley (ABC News, June 16, 2026; Cook race summary). Cook's summary notes Collins' combative social-media presence, hardline abortion position and pending ethics investigation as liabilities in suburban Atlanta. Georgia requires a majority, so a Dec 1 runoff is possible (Wikipedia).
Notes
- Runoff margin: Wikipedia gives Collins 55.5%; ABC News reported 55-45 with ~59% of the expected vote counted; Cook says 'more than 10 points'.
Hume Outlook
91% Jon Ossoff · DemocratChance to win the seat, including a runoff if no one reaches a majority
DEM
Jon Ossoff
91%
REP
Mike Collins
9%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Ossoff 55.0% · Collins 40.0%
Echelon Insights / NetChoice · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+1
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 50.6%
2021 general · margin 1.2%
Side by side
2 candidates · 6 measuresMeasureDEMOssoffREPCollins
Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage
Jon OssoffJON OSSOFF FOR SENATEC00718866
Mike CollinsMIKE COLLINS FOR SENATEC00544684
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jon Ossoff$115,904,485.77
Mike Collins$10,679,277.11
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jon Ossoff$105,760,716.56
Mike Collins$10,178,765.75
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jon Ossoff$15,134,335.92
Mike Collins$1,103,681.90
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jon Ossoff55.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Mike Collins40.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jon OssoffR+1seat-level
Mike CollinsR+1seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Ossoff | Collins | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon InsightsNetChoice | 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23 | LV · n=508 | 55.0% | 40.0% | Allen Buckley 3.0% |
| ActiVote | 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=400 | 54.0% | 46.0% | none |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-17 | LV · n=755 | 51.8% | 44.9% | none |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International AffairsThe Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 2026-10-07 to 2026-10-15 | LV · n=1,000 | 48.0% | 40.0% | none |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-22 to 2026-09-23 | LV · n=1,200 | 50.0% | 42.0% | none |
| Big Data PollPublic Polling Project | 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-23 | LV · n=678 | 55.4% | 44.6% | none |
| InsiderAdvantageJames Magazine | 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 | LV · n=800 | 50.1% | 42.6% | none |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchAARP | 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-16 | LV · n=1,060 | 52.0% | 43.0% | none |
| Wick | 2026-06-27 to 2026-06-30 | LV · n=1,175 | 46.7% | 42.9% | none |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News | 2026-06-23 to 2026-06-27 | RV · n=1,002 | 56.0% | 43.0% | none |
7 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+1
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -0.952
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2021 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | DEM | 2,269,262 | 50.62% |
| David A. Perdue | REP | 2,213,979 | 49.38% |
Total votes 4,483,241 · winning margin 1.23% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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