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Race · U.S. House · Hawaii · 2026

Hawaii District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Hawaii District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, Hawaii District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Ed Case incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Jordan S. Conley
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Nathan M. Berning
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Adriel C. Lam
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentEd Case

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Ed Case · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Ed Case 99%
REP Adriel C. Lam 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+14 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 71.8% 2024 general · margin 43.7%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMCaseGRNConleyINDBerningREPLam
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ed Case$1,339,008.35
Jordan S. ConleyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Nathan M. BerningNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Adriel C. LamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ed Case$1,205,991.98
Jordan S. ConleyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Nathan M. BerningNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Adriel C. LamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ed Case$449,674.45
Jordan S. ConleyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Nathan M. BerningNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Adriel C. LamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ed CaseNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jordan S. ConleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Nathan M. BerningNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Adriel C. LamNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ed CaseD+14seat-level
Jordan S. ConleyD+14seat-level
Nathan M. BerningD+14seat-level
Adriel C. LamD+14seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+14
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +13.892

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Ed CaseDEM164,23771.84%
    Patrick C. LargeyREP64,37328.16%

    Total votes 228,610 · winning margin 43.68% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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