HI-02 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Hawaii District 2 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Jill N. Tokuda incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Brenton Awa

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJill N. Tokuda

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Jill N. Tokuda · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Jill N. Tokuda 99%

REP Brenton Awa 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+14 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 66.5% 2024 general · margin 36.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMTokudaREPAwa

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Jill N. Tokuda$985,930.33

Brenton Awa$131,062.69

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Jill N. Tokuda$982,396.38

Brenton Awa$121,920.05

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Jill N. Tokuda$486,974.66

Brenton Awa$9,142.64

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Jill N. TokudaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Brenton AwaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Jill N. TokudaD+14seat-level

Brenton AwaD+14seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+14

Lean (D minus R, points): +13.978

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Jill N. Tokuda	DEM	166,251	66.46%
Steve Bond	REP	75,471	30.17%
Aaron Toman	LIB	4,497	1.80%
Randall Kelly Meyer	OTH	3,937	1.57%

Total votes 250,156 · winning margin 36.29% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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