IA-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

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U.S. House, Iowa District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Christina Bohannan

85%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

INDOn the ballot

Michael Bridgford

—Not published for this candidate

REPNominee

Mariannette Miller-Meeks incumbent

15%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMariannette Miller-Meeks

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

85% Christina Bohannan · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Christina Bohannan 85%

REP Mariannette Miller-Meeks 15%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Miller-Meeks 35.0% · Bohannan 40.0% · Bridgford 11.0% The Bullfinch Group / The Independent Center · 2026-07-16

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+3 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 50.1% 2024 general · margin 0.2%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMBohannanINDBridgfordREPMiller-Meeks

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Christina Bohannan$9,905,570.29

Michael Bridgford$338,285.03

Mariannette Miller-Meeks$9,101,897.68

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Christina Bohannan$7,901,941.23

Michael Bridgford$261,555.07

Mariannette Miller-Meeks$7,774,923.60

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Christina Bohannan$2,110,846.44

Michael Bridgford$76,729.96

Mariannette Miller-Meeks$1,700,717.48

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Christina Bohannan40.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-07-16

Michael Bridgford11.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-07-16

Mariannette Miller-Meeks35.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-07-16

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Christina BohannanR+3seat-level

Michael BridgfordR+3seat-level

Mariannette Miller-MeeksR+3seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

2 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-07-16

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Bohannan	Bridgford	Miller-Meeks	Others
The Bullfinch GroupThe Independent Center	2026-07-13 to 2026-07-16	LV · n=705	40.0%	11.0%	35.0%	none
Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC	2025-06-18 to 2025-06-19	A · n=555	43.0%	not named	39.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+3

Lean (D minus R, points): -3.426

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Mariannette Miller-Meeks	REP	206,955	50.10%
Christina Bohannan	DEM	206,156	49.90%

Total votes 413,111 · winning margin 0.19% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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