Race header
DEMNominee
Lindsay James
60%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Dave Bushaw
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Rick Stewart
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Joe Mitchell
40%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
60% Lindsay James · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Lindsay James
60%
REP
Joe Mitchell
40%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Mitchell 47.0% · James 50.0%
Emerson College / Poll Vault · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+4
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 57.1%
2024 general · margin 15.6%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMJamesINDBushawLIBStewartREPMitchell
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Lindsay James$3,917,994.43
Dave Bushaw$38,292.01
Rick StewartNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Mitchell$2,916,068.98
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Lindsay James$3,652,041.16
Dave Bushaw$26,910.09
Rick StewartNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Mitchell$2,370,535.31
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Lindsay James$265,953.27
Dave Bushaw$11,317.89
Rick StewartNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Mitchell$545,533.67
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Lindsay James50.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Dave BushawNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-14)
Rick StewartNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-14)
Joe Mitchell47.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Lindsay JamesR+4seat-level
Dave BushawR+4seat-level
Rick StewartR+4seat-level
Joe MitchellR+4seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | James | Bushaw | Stewart | Mitchell | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=344 | 50.0% | not named | not named | 47.0% | none |
| Global Strategy GroupHouse Majority PAC | 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-19 | LV | 46.0% | not named | not named | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+4
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -4.215
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | REP | 233,340 | 57.13% |
| Sarah Corkery | DEM | 169,740 | 41.56% |
| Jody Madlom Puffett | OTH | 5,381 | 1.32% |
Total votes 408,461 · winning margin 15.57% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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