IA-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Iowa District 3 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Sarah Trone Garriott

76%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Zach Nunn incumbent

24%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentZach Nunn

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

76% Sarah Trone Garriott · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Sarah Trone Garriott 76%

REP Zach Nunn 24%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+3 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 51.9% 2024 general · margin 3.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMGarriottREPNunn

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Sarah Trone Garriott$8,070,401.51

Zach Nunn$6,123,740.03

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Sarah Trone Garriott$6,916,812.01

Zach Nunn$5,555,814.52

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Sarah Trone Garriott$1,153,589.50

Zach Nunn$620,758.90

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Sarah Trone GarriottNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Zach NunnNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Sarah Trone GarriottR+3seat-level

Zach NunnR+3seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+3

Lean (D minus R, points): -2.563

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Zach Nunn	REP	213,746	51.92%
Lanon Baccam	DEM	197,962	48.08%

Total votes 411,708 · winning margin 3.83% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.