IA-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Iowa District 4 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Dave Dawson

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Chris McGowan

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Chris McGowan · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Chris McGowan 97%

DEM Dave Dawson 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+16 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 67.2% 2024 general · margin 34.4%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMDawsonREPMcgowan

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Dave Dawson$259,240.69

Chris McGowan$862,815.88

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Dave Dawson$217,264.44

Chris McGowan$418,900.79

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Dave Dawson$41,976.25

Chris McGowan$443,915.09

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Dave DawsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Chris McGowanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Dave DawsonR+16seat-level

Chris McGowanR+16seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+16

Lean (D minus R, points): -15.541

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Randy Feenstra	REP	250,522	67.22%
Ryan Melton	DEM	122,175	32.78%

Total votes 372,697 · winning margin 34.44% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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