Share this race
Download share card (PNG)
Race header
DEMDemocratic nominee
Josh Tureklimited profile
open-seat nominee (Iowa state representative)
won June 2, 2026 primary
40%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Thomas Laehn
—Not published for this candidate
REPRepublican nominee
Ashley Hinson
open-seat nominee (sitting U.S. Representative, IA-2)
won June 2, 2026 primary, 74.2%
60%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJoni Ernst (R) - retiring
Why it is watchedCook moved Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Aug 20, 2026, writing that Rep. Ashley Hinson is one of the GOP's best recruits but that the political environment is 'uniquely challenging' for Republicans there (Cook race page; Spectrum News, Aug 20, 2026). Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008 and Trump won it by 13 points in 2024 (Wikipedia). In the June 2, 2026 primaries Hinson took 74.2% and state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympic athlete from Council Bluffs, won the Democratic nomination over state Sen. Zach Wahls (Iowa Capital Dispatch, June 2, 2026; Wikipedia gives 62.6%).
Hume Outlook
60% Ashley Hinson · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Ashley Hinson
60%
DEM
Josh Turek
40%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Hinson 48.0% · Turek 46.0% · Laehn 1.0%
co/efficient · 2026-10-28
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+6
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 51.8%
2020 general · margin 6.6%
Side by side
3 candidates · 6 measuresMeasureDEMTurekLIBLaehnREPHinson
Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage
Josh TurekJOSH TUREK FOR IOWAC00915645
Thomas LaehnNot available No principal committee linkage in the data file
Ashley HinsonASHLEY FOR IOWAC00706267
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Josh Turek$24,290,521.10
Thomas Laehn$61,145.58
Ashley Hinson$14,147,972.57
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Josh Turek$21,217,670.10
Thomas Laehn$66,667.82
Ashley Hinson$13,903,059.38
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Josh Turek$3,072,851.00
Thomas Laehn$9,035.08
Ashley Hinson$2,172,988.59
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Josh Turek46.0%co/efficient · 2026-10-28
Thomas Laehn1.0%co/efficient · 2026-10-28
Ashley Hinson48.0%co/efficient · 2026-10-28
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Josh TurekR+6seat-level
Thomas LaehnR+6seat-level
Ashley HinsonR+6seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Turek | Laehn | Hinson | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 2026-10-28 to 2026-10-28 | LV · n=1,020 | 46.0% | 1.0% | 48.0% | none |
| Echelon InsightsNetChoice | 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23 | LV · n=403 | 45.0% | 7.0% | 43.0% | none |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22 | LV · n=1,200 | 45.0% | not named | 47.0% | none |
| co/efficient | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=863 | 45.0% | 2.0% | 48.0% | none |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupThe Cook Political Report | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13 | LV · n=602 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 44.0% | none |
| YouGov | 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-12 | LV · n=2,245 | 47.0% | not named | 46.0% | none |
| National Public Affairs | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-12 | LV · n=678 | 44.0% | 4.0% | 47.0% | none |
| Marist University | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-11 | LV · n=1,100 | 48.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Emerson CollegeNexstar Media | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06 | LV · n=650 | 45.0% | 1.5% | 46.6% | none |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05 | LV · n=801 | 43.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
15 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+6
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -6.132
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joni Ernst | REP | 864,997 | 51.78% |
| Theresa Greenfield | DEM | 754,859 | 45.18% |
| Rick Stewart | LIB | 36,961 | 2.21% |
| Suzanne Herzog | OTH | 13,800 | 0.83% |
Total votes 1,670,617 · winning margin 6.59% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.