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Race · U.S. House · Idaho · 2026

Idaho District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Idaho District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Idaho District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Elinor Gilbreath
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Emre Houser
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Tripp Charles Hutchinson
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Will Johanson
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Michael K. Simpson incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMichael K. Simpson

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
97% Michael K. Simpson · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Michael K. Simpson 97%
DEM Elinor Gilbreath 3%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+15 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 61.4% 2024 general · margin 30.4%

Side by side

5 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-06-30, 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMGilbreathINDHouserINDHutchinsonLIBJohansonREPSimpson
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Elinor Gilbreath$169,226.46through 2026-10-14
Emre HouserNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tripp Charles Hutchinson$7,565.00through 2026-06-30
Will JohansonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael K. Simpson$1,409,211.99through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Elinor Gilbreath$132,510.19through 2026-10-14
Emre HouserNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tripp Charles Hutchinson$1,578.36through 2026-06-30
Will JohansonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael K. Simpson$1,213,826.50through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Elinor Gilbreath$36,716.27through 2026-10-14
Emre HouserNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tripp Charles Hutchinson$6,963.48through 2026-06-30
Will JohansonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael K. Simpson$300,591.21through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Elinor GilbreathNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Emre HouserNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tripp Charles HutchinsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Will JohansonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael K. SimpsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Elinor GilbreathR+15seat-level
Emre HouserR+15seat-level
Tripp Charles HutchinsonR+15seat-level
Will JohansonR+15seat-level
Michael K. SimpsonR+15seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+15
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -14.633

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Michael K. SimpsonREP250,11961.38%
    David RothDEM126,22930.98%
    Todd CorsettiLIB21,3105.23%
    Idaho Law - Carta SierraOTH9,8042.41%

    Total votes 407,462 · winning margin 30.41% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Jun 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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