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Race header
INDOn the ballot
Natalie Fleming
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Todd Achilles
8%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Matt Loesby
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jim Risch
incumbent
92%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJim Risch
Hume Outlook
92% Jim Risch · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jim Risch
92%
IND
Todd Achilles
8%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Risch 34.0% · Achilles 30.0% · Loesby 4.0%
The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-07
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+18
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 62.6%
2020 general · margin 29.4%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureINDFlemingINDAchillesLIBLoesbyREPRisch
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Natalie FlemingNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Todd Achilles$1,921,131.94
Matt LoesbyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jim Risch$3,935,512.15
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Natalie FlemingNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Todd Achilles$1,733,606.31
Matt LoesbyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jim Risch$4,233,641.95
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Natalie FlemingNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Todd Achilles$195,818.55
Matt LoesbyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jim Risch$2,122,234.76
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Natalie FlemingNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-07)
Todd Achilles30.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-07
Matt Loesby4.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-07
Jim Risch34.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-07
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Natalie FlemingR+18seat-level
Todd AchillesR+18seat-level
Matt LoesbyR+18seat-level
Jim RischR+18seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Fleming | Achilles | Loesby | Risch | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | 2026-08-04 to 2026-08-07 | LV · n=608 | not named | 30.0% | 4.0% | 34.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+18
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -18.056
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch | REP | 538,446 | 62.62% |
| Paulette Jordan | DEM | 285,864 | 33.25% |
| Natalie M Fleming | OTH | 25,329 | 2.95% |
| Ray J. Writz | OTH | 10,188 | 1.18% |
Total votes 859,827 · winning margin 29.38% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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