Race header
DEMNominee
Patty Garcia
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Chris Getty
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Ed Hershey
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Lupe Castillo
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
99% Patty Garcia · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Patty Garcia
99%
REP
Lupe Castillo
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Garcia 34.0% · Castillo 15.0% · Getty 9.0% · Hershey 4.0%
The Bullfinch Group / The Independent Center · 2026-08-04
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+23
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
DEM 67.5%
2024 general · margin 40.2%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGarciaINDGettyOTHHersheyREPCastillo
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Patty Garcia$526,691.49
Chris GettyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ed HersheyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lupe CastilloNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Patty Garcia$369,980.32
Chris GettyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ed HersheyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lupe CastilloNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Patty Garcia$156,711.17
Chris GettyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ed HersheyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lupe CastilloNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Patty Garcia34.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-04
Chris Getty9.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-04
Ed Hershey4.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-04
Lupe Castillo15.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-08-04
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Patty GarciaD+23seat-level
Chris GettyD+23seat-level
Ed HersheyD+23seat-level
Lupe CastilloD+23seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Garcia | Getty | Hershey | Castillo | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch GroupThe Independent Center | 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-04 | RV · n=653 | 34.0% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 15.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+23
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +22.844
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús G. “Chuy” García | DEM | 139,343 | 67.52% |
| Lupe Castillo | REP | 56,323 | 27.29% |
| Ed Hershey | OTH | 10,704 | 5.19% |
Total votes 206,370 · winning margin 40.23% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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