Influence no longer invisible Races · IL-05 House 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. House · Illinois · 2026

Illinois District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Illinois District 5

← All 2026 races

Race header

U.S. House, Illinois District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Mike Quigley incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Tommy Hanson
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMike Quigley

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Mike Quigley · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Mike Quigley 99%
REP Tommy Hanson 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+19 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 69.0% 2024 general · margin 37.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMQuigleyREPHanson
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Mike Quigley$998,074.45
Tommy HansonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Mike Quigley$1,076,593.96
Tommy HansonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Mike Quigley$1,102,663.88
Tommy HansonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Mike QuigleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tommy HansonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Mike QuigleyD+19seat-level
Tommy HansonD+19seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+19
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +18.507

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Mike QuigleyDEM251,02568.97%
    Tommy HansonREP112,93131.03%

    Total votes 363,956 · winning margin 37.94% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.