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Race · U.S. House · Illinois · 2026

Illinois District 10 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Illinois District 10

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Race header

U.S. House, Illinois District 10 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Brad Schneider incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Carl Lambrecht
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBrad Schneider

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Brad Schneider · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Brad Schneider 98%
REP Carl Lambrecht 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+11 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 60.0% 2024 general · margin 20.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMSchneiderREPLambrecht
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Brad Schneider$3,657,881.54
Carl LambrechtNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Brad Schneider$2,922,149.42
Carl LambrechtNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Brad Schneider$1,707,158.21
Carl LambrechtNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Brad SchneiderNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Carl LambrechtNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Brad SchneiderD+11seat-level
Carl LambrechtD+11seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+11
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +11.000

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Brad SchneiderDEM196,35859.98%
    Jim CarrisREP131,02540.02%

    Total votes 327,383 · winning margin 19.96% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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