IL-15 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Illinois District 15 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Jennifer Todd

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Mary E. Miller incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMary E. Miller

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Mary E. Miller · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Mary E. Miller 99%

DEM Jennifer Todd 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+22 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMToddREPMiller

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Jennifer Todd$210,096.75

Mary E. Miller$1,862,237.52

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Jennifer Todd$172,911.15

Mary E. Miller$1,597,957.79

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Jennifer Todd$37,185.60

Mary E. Miller$910,536.07

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Jennifer ToddNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Mary E. MillerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Jennifer ToddR+22seat-level

Mary E. MillerR+22seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+22

Lean (D minus R, points): -21.806

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Mary E. Miller	REP	308,825	100.00%

Total votes 308,825 · winning margin Not available of total

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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