IL-16 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Illinois District 16 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Paul Nolley

4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Darin LaHood incumbent

96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentDarin LaHood

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

96% Darin LaHood · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Darin LaHood 96%

DEM Paul Nolley 4%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+13 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMNolleyREPLahood

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Paul Nolley$639,225.21

Darin LaHood$4,205,602.32

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Paul Nolley$580,165.74

Darin LaHood$3,738,426.54

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Paul Nolley$59,059.47

Darin LaHood$5,988,458.85

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Paul NolleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Darin LaHoodNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Paul NolleyR+13seat-level

Darin LaHoodR+13seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+13

Lean (D minus R, points): -13.420

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Darin LaHood	REP	310,925	100.00%

Total votes 310,925 · winning margin Not available of total

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.