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DEMNominee
Juliana Stratton
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Whitfield Harrington, Jr.
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Don Tracy
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
98% Juliana Stratton · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Juliana Stratton
98%
REP
Don Tracy
2%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Stratton 59.0% · Tracy 42.0%
ActiVote · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+6
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 54.9%
2020 general · margin 16.1%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMStrattonOTHHarringtonREPTracy
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Juliana Stratton$7,230,576.52
Whitfield Harrington, Jr.$143,381.62
Don Tracy$4,914,363.45
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Juliana Stratton$5,688,991.72
Whitfield Harrington, Jr.$123,897.47
Don Tracy$4,431,346.07
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Juliana Stratton$1,541,584.80
Whitfield Harrington, Jr.$19,484.15
Don Tracy$483,017.38
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Juliana Stratton59.0%ActiVote · 2026-10-20
Whitfield Harrington, Jr.Not available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Don Tracy42.0%ActiVote · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Juliana StrattonD+6seat-level
Whitfield Harrington, Jr.D+6seat-level
Don TracyD+6seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Stratton | Harrington | Tracy | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=400 | 59.0% | not named | 42.0% | none |
| Public Policy PollingChicago News Weekly | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-01 | LV · n=569 | 49.0% | not named | 36.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+6
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +6.342
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard J. Durbin | DEM | 3,278,930 | 54.93% |
| Mark C. Curran JR. | REP | 2,319,870 | 38.87% |
| Willie L. Wilson | OTH | 237,699 | 3.98% |
| Danny Malouf | LIB | 75,673 | 1.27% |
| David F. Black | GRN | 56,711 | 0.95% |
Total votes 5,968,883 · winning margin 16.07% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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