IN-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Indiana District 3 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Kelly Thompson

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Marlin A. Stutzman incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMarlin A. Stutzman

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Marlin A. Stutzman · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Marlin A. Stutzman 97%

DEM Kelly Thompson 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+18 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 65.0% 2024 general · margin 33.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMThompsonREPStutzman

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Kelly Thompson$347,103.35

Marlin A. Stutzman$967,094.90

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Kelly Thompson$293,121.91

Marlin A. Stutzman$915,364.11

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Kelly Thompson$53,981.44

Marlin A. Stutzman$101,047.75

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Kelly ThompsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Marlin A. StutzmanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Kelly ThompsonR+18seat-level

Marlin A. StutzmanR+18seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+18

Lean (D minus R, points): -18.123

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Marlin A. Stutzman	REP	202,653	65.05%
Kiley M. Adolph	DEM	97,871	31.42%
Jarrad Lancaster	LIB	11,015	3.54%

Total votes 311,539 · winning margin 33.63% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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