IN-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Indiana District 4 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Drew Cox

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

James R. Baird incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJames R. Baird

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% James R. Baird · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP James R. Baird 97%

DEM Drew Cox 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+18 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 64.8% 2024 general · margin 33.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMCoxREPBaird

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Drew Cox$60,558.90

James R. Baird$604,799.61

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Drew Cox$53,738.87

James R. Baird$709,054.59

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Drew Cox$6,820.03

James R. Baird$110,354.75

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Drew CoxNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

James R. BairdNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Drew CoxR+18seat-level

James R. BairdR+18seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+18

Lean (D minus R, points): -17.923

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
James R. Baird	REP	209,794	64.83%
Derrick Holder	DEM	100,091	30.93%
Ashley Groff	LIB	13,710	4.24%

Total votes 323,595 · winning margin 33.90% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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