IN-05 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Indiana District 5 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

J. D. Ford

15%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Victoria Spartz incumbent

85%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentVictoria Spartz

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

85% Victoria Spartz · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Victoria Spartz 85%

DEM J. D. Ford 15%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+11 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 56.6% 2024 general · margin 18.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMFordREPSpartz

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

J. D. Ford$1,410,737.39

Victoria Spartz$2,192,717.16

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

J. D. Ford$1,086,208.73

Victoria Spartz$1,935,845.40

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

J. D. Ford$324,528.66

Victoria Spartz$514,921.94

Latest pollpercent, as stored

J. D. FordNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Victoria SpartzNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

J. D. FordR+11seat-level

Victoria SpartzR+11seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+11

Lean (D minus R, points): -11.492

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Victoria Spartz	REP	203,293	56.60%
Deborah A. Pickett	DEM	136,554	38.02%
Robby Slaughter	OTH	9,790	2.73%
Lauri Shillings	LIB	9,567	2.66%

Total votes 359,204 · winning margin 18.58% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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