IN-08 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Indiana District 8 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Mary Allen

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Mark B. Messmer incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMark B. Messmer

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Mark B. Messmer · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Mark B. Messmer 97%

DEM Mary Allen 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+19 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 68.0% 2024 general · margin 38.5%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMAllenREPMessmer

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Mary Allen$493,068.23

Mark B. Messmer$1,424,576.78

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Mary Allen$385,561.18

Mark B. Messmer$1,080,776.56

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Mary Allen$107,507.05

Mark B. Messmer$550,906.09

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Mary AllenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Mark B. MessmerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Mary AllenR+19seat-level

Mark B. MessmerR+19seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+19

Lean (D minus R, points): -19.051

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Mark B. Messmer	REP	219,941	67.96%
Erik Hurt	DEM	95,311	29.45%
K. Richard Fitzlaff	LIB	8,381	2.59%

Total votes 323,633 · winning margin 38.51% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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