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Race · U.S. House · Kansas · 2026

Kansas District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Kansas District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, Kansas District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Lauren Reinhold
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Steven Jacob
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tracey Mann incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTracey Mann

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Tracey Mann · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Tracey Mann 98%
DEM Lauren Reinhold 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+18 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 69.1% 2024 general · margin 38.3%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMReinholdLIBJacobREPMann
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Lauren Reinhold$136,351.18
Steven JacobNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tracey Mann$1,793,300.23
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Lauren Reinhold$103,366.14
Steven JacobNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tracey Mann$632,892.72
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Lauren Reinhold$32,985.04
Steven JacobNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tracey Mann$2,914,104.35
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Lauren ReinholdNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Steven JacobNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tracey MannNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Lauren ReinholdR+18seat-level
Steven JacobR+18seat-level
Tracey MannR+18seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+18
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -18.053

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Tracey MannREP210,49369.14%
    Paul BuskirkDEM93,96530.86%

    Total votes 304,458 · winning margin 38.27% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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