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DEMNominee
Adam Hamilton
17%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
David Graham
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Roger Marshall
incumbent
83%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentRoger Marshall
Hume Outlook
83% Roger Marshall · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Roger Marshall
83%
DEM
Adam Hamilton
17%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Marshall 45.0% · Hamilton 49.0%
CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-26
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+8
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 53.2%
2020 general · margin 11.4%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMHamiltonLIBGrahamREPMarshall
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Adam Hamilton$19,175,044.34
David GrahamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Roger Marshall$5,350,063.53
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Adam Hamilton$16,300,680.60
David GrahamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Roger Marshall$6,245,275.71
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Adam Hamilton$2,874,363.74
David GrahamNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Roger Marshall$809,806.46
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Adam Hamilton49.0%CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-26
David GrahamNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-26)
Roger Marshall45.0%CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-26
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Adam HamiltonR+8seat-level
David GrahamR+8seat-level
Roger MarshallR+8seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
4 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Hamilton | Graham | Marshall | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-26 | LV · n=838 | 49.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=1,200 | 47.0% | not named | 48.0% | none |
| Emerson CollegeNexstar Media | 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 | LV · n=750 | 45.0% | 4.0% | 43.0% | none |
| Tavern Research | 2026-01-26 to 2026-01-28 | LV · n=1,013 | 46.0% | not named | 54.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+8
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -8.224
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Marshall | REP | 727,962 | 53.22% |
| Barbara Bollier | DEM | 571,530 | 41.79% |
| Jason Buckley | LIB | 68,263 | 4.99% |
Total votes 1,367,755 · winning margin 11.44% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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