KY-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Kentucky District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

John Drew Williams

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

James Comer incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJames Comer

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% James Comer · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP James Comer 99%

DEM John Drew Williams 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+24 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 74.7% 2024 general · margin 49.4%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMWilliamsREPComer

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

John Drew Williams$223,179.90

James Comer$2,318,360.81

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

John Drew Williams$213,880.62

James Comer$3,904,151.06

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

John Drew Williams$7,976.68

James Comer$1,623,432.27

Latest pollpercent, as stored

John Drew WilliamsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

James ComerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

John Drew WilliamsR+24seat-level

James ComerR+24seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+24

Lean (D minus R, points): -24.057

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
James Comer	REP	252,729	74.72%
Erin Marshall	DEM	85,524	25.28%

Total votes 338,253 · winning margin 49.43% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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