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Race · U.S. House · Kentucky · 2026

Kentucky District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Kentucky District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Kentucky District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Megan Wingfield
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Thomas A. Loecken
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Brett Guthrie incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBrett Guthrie

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Brett Guthrie · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Brett Guthrie 99%
DEM Megan Wingfield 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+21 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 73.1% 2024 general · margin 46.2%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMWingfieldINDLoeckenREPGuthrie
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Megan Wingfield$9,584.49
Thomas A. LoeckenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brett Guthrie$5,986,647.25
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Megan Wingfield$7,832.25
Thomas A. LoeckenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brett Guthrie$4,905,596.15
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Megan Wingfield$1,270.59
Thomas A. LoeckenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brett Guthrie$1,447,295.54
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Megan WingfieldNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Thomas A. LoeckenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Brett GuthrieNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Megan WingfieldR+21seat-level
Thomas A. LoeckenR+21seat-level
Brett GuthrieR+21seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+21
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -21.270

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Brett GuthrieREP252,82673.10%
    Hank LindermanDEM93,02926.90%

    Total votes 345,855 · winning margin 46.20% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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