KY-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Kentucky District 3 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Morgan McGarvey incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Maria Teresa Rodriguez

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMorgan McGarvey

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Morgan McGarvey · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Morgan McGarvey 98%

REP Maria Teresa Rodriguez 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+9 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 62.0% 2024 general · margin 23.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMcgarveyREPRodriguez

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Morgan McGarvey$1,998,328.22through 2026-10-14

Maria Teresa Rodriguez$75,078.70through 2026-09-30

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Morgan McGarvey$1,327,899.66through 2026-10-14

Maria Teresa Rodriguez$42,618.10through 2026-09-30

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Morgan McGarvey$1,933,845.66through 2026-10-14

Maria Teresa Rodriguez$32,360.60through 2026-09-30

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Morgan McGarveyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Maria Teresa RodriguezNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Morgan McGarveyD+9seat-level

Maria Teresa RodriguezD+9seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+9

Lean (D minus R, points): +8.510

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Morgan McGarvey	DEM	203,100	61.96%
Mike Craven	REP	124,713	38.04%

Total votes 327,813 · winning margin 23.91% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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