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Race · U.S. House · Kentucky · 2026

Kentucky District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Kentucky District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Kentucky District 4 · Open seat
DEMNominee
Melissa Claire Strange
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Jeremy Todd
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Ed Gallrein
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Ed Gallrein · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Ed Gallrein 98%
DEM Melissa Claire Strange 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+19 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMStrangeLIBToddREPGallrein
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Melissa Claire Strange$157,330.40
Jeremy ToddNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ed Gallrein$4,095,784.14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Melissa Claire Strange$123,485.44
Jeremy ToddNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ed Gallrein$3,662,248.65
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Melissa Claire Strange$40,742.09
Jeremy ToddNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ed Gallrein$433,535.49
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Melissa Claire StrangeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jeremy ToddNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Ed GallreinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Melissa Claire StrangeR+19seat-level
Jeremy ToddR+19seat-level
Ed GallreinR+19seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+19
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -19.452

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Thomas MassieREP278,386100.00%

    Total votes 278,386 · winning margin Not available of total

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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