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Race · U.S. House · Kentucky · 2026

Kentucky District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Kentucky District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Kentucky District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Ned Pillersdorf
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Gerardo Serrano
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Mikel Wein
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Hal Rogers incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentHal Rogers

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Hal Rogers · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Hal Rogers 99%
DEM Ned Pillersdorf 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+32 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMPillersdorfINDSerranoINDWeinREPRogers
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ned Pillersdorf$377,088.72
Gerardo SerranoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mikel Wein$4,250.00
Hal Rogers$1,026,113.99
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ned Pillersdorf$270,619.74
Gerardo SerranoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mikel Wein$1,338.22
Hal Rogers$1,295,441.73
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ned Pillersdorf$106,493.98
Gerardo SerranoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mikel Wein$2,911.78
Hal Rogers$701,923.99
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ned PillersdorfNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Gerardo SerranoNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mikel WeinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Hal RogersNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ned PillersdorfR+32seat-level
Gerardo SerranoR+32seat-level
Mikel WeinR+32seat-level
Hal RogersR+32seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+32
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -32.251

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Hal RogersREP261,407100.00%

    Total votes 261,407 · winning margin Not available of total

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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