Race header
DEMNominee
Zach Dembo
31%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Jay J. Bowman
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Pete Lynch
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Ralph Alvarado
69%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
69% Ralph Alvarado · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Ralph Alvarado
69%
DEM
Zach Dembo
31%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Alvarado 41.0% · Dembo 47.0%
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+9
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 63.0%
2024 general · margin 26.1%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMDemboINDBowmanOTHLynchREPAlvarado
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Zach Dembo$3,205,461.88
Jay J. BowmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Pete LynchNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ralph Alvarado$2,307,369.27
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Zach Dembo$2,585,132.32
Jay J. BowmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Pete LynchNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ralph Alvarado$2,126,557.77
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Zach Dembo$620,329.56
Jay J. BowmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Pete LynchNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ralph Alvarado$180,811.50
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Zach Dembo47.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-20
Jay J. BowmanNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Pete LynchNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Ralph Alvarado41.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Zach DemboR+9seat-level
Jay J. BowmanR+9seat-level
Pete LynchR+9seat-level
Ralph AlvaradoR+9seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
4 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Dembo | Bowman | Lynch | Alvarado | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=572 | 47.0% | not named | not named | 41.0% | none |
| Change ResearchKentuckians Not Corruption | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05 | LV · n=524 | 47.0% | not named | not named | 38.0% | none |
| Lake Research PartnersHouse Majority PAC | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04 | LV · n=400 | 46.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 40.0% | none |
| Lake Research PartnersHouse Majority PAC | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04 | LV · n=400 | 48.0% | not named | not named | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+9
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -8.643
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Barr | REP | 222,293 | 63.04% |
| Randy Cravens | DEM | 130,345 | 36.96% |
Total votes 352,638 · winning margin 26.07% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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