Influence no longer invisible Races · KY Senate 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. Senate · Kentucky · 2026

Kentucky · U.S. Senate · 2026

Seat U.S. Senate, Class 2

← All 2026 races

Share this race Download share card (PNG)

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Open seat
DEMNominee
Charles Booker
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Christopher Campbell
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Andy Barr
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Andy Barr · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Andy Barr 98%
DEM Charles Booker 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+15 cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat REP 57.8% 2020 general · margin 19.5%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMBookerOTHCampbellREPBarr
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Charles Booker$1,936,323.82
Christopher Campbell$0.00
Andy Barr$12,541,350.16
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Charles Booker$1,632,724.93
Christopher Campbell$0.00
Andy Barr$14,680,570.70
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Charles Booker$303,598.89
Christopher Campbell$0.00
Andy Barr$1,553,857.10
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Charles BookerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Christopher CampbellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Andy BarrNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Charles BookerR+15seat-level
Christopher CampbellR+15seat-level
Andy BarrR+15seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2024
    R+15
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -14.999
    Presidential cycles
    2020, 2024
    Computed
    2026-06-08

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2020 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Mitch McConnellREP1,233,31557.77%
    Amy McGrathDEM816,25738.23%
    Brad BarronLIB85,3864.00%

    Total votes 2,134,958 · winning margin 19.53% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.