Race header
DEMOn the ballot
Lauren Jewett
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
E. Liddy Glass
—Not published for this candidate
REPOn the ballot
Randall Arrington
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPOn the ballot
Steve Scalise
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
How this election worksLouisiana votes in an open primary on Nov. 3. If no one wins a majority, the top two go to a runoff on Dec. 12. Each Hume Outlook figure is the chance to win the seat, including that runoff, so Nov. 3 may not settle this race.
IncumbentSteve Scalise
Hume Outlook
99% Steve Scalise · RepublicanChance to win the seat across the named field, including a runoff if no one reaches a majority
REP
Steve Scalise
99%
DEM
Lauren Jewett
1%
REP
Randall Arrington
<1%
All other candidates
<1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMJewettINDGlassREPArringtonREPScalise
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Lauren Jewett$716,339.22
E. Liddy GlassNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Randall ArringtonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Steve Scalise$11,172,078.05
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Lauren Jewett$560,253.37
E. Liddy GlassNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Randall ArringtonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Steve Scalise$12,390,704.45
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Lauren Jewett$156,045.85
E. Liddy GlassNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Randall ArringtonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Steve Scalise$2,912,526.17
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Lauren JewettNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
E. Liddy GlassNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Randall ArringtonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Steve ScaliseNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Lauren JewettNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
E. Liddy GlassNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Randall ArringtonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Steve ScaliseNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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