Race header
DEMOn the ballot
Caleb With a C Walker
—Not published for this candidate
DEMOn the ballot
John Day
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
DEMOn the ballot
Priscilla Gonzalez
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Tia LeBrun
—Not published for this candidate
REPOn the ballot
Clay Higgins
incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPOn the ballot
Kate Cotten
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
How this election worksLouisiana votes in an open primary on Nov. 3. If no one wins a majority, the top two go to a runoff on Dec. 12. Each Hume Outlook figure is the chance to win the seat, including that runoff, so Nov. 3 may not settle this race.
IncumbentClay Higgins
Hume Outlook
98% Clay Higgins · RepublicanChance to win the seat across the named field, including a runoff if no one reaches a majority
REP
Clay Higgins
98%
DEM
John Day
2%
REP
Kate Cotten
<1%
All other candidates
<1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
6 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMWalkerDEMDayDEMGonzalezINDLebrunREPHigginsREPCotten
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Caleb With a C WalkerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Day$222,556.77through 2026-10-14
Priscilla GonzalezNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tia LeBrun$7,383.00through 2026-09-30
Clay Higgins$904,294.13through 2026-10-14
Kate CottenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Caleb With a C WalkerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Day$97,818.62through 2026-10-14
Priscilla GonzalezNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tia LeBrun$4,101.79through 2026-09-30
Clay Higgins$662,390.47through 2026-10-14
Kate CottenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Caleb With a C WalkerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Day$124,738.15through 2026-10-14
Priscilla GonzalezNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tia LeBrun$3,880.01through 2026-09-30
Clay Higgins$566,471.70through 2026-10-14
Kate CottenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Caleb With a C WalkerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
John DayNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Priscilla GonzalezNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tia LeBrunNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Clay HigginsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kate CottenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Caleb With a C WalkerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
John DayNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Priscilla GonzalezNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Tia LeBrunNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Clay HigginsNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Kate CottenNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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