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Race · U.S. House · Louisiana · 2026

Louisiana District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Louisiana District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Louisiana District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMOn the ballot
Conrad Cable
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
DEMOn the ballot
Matt Gromlich
—Not published for this candidate
REPOn the ballot
Gordon Heslop
—Not published for this candidate
REPOn the ballot
Mike Johnson incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPOn the ballot
Mike Nichols
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
How this election worksLouisiana votes in an open primary on Nov. 3. If no one wins a majority, the top two go to a runoff on Dec. 12. Each Hume Outlook figure is the chance to win the seat, including that runoff, so Nov. 3 may not settle this race.
IncumbentMike Johnson

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Mike Johnson · RepublicanChance to win the seat across the named field, including a runoff if no one reaches a majority
REP Mike Johnson 98%
DEM Conrad Cable 2%
REP Mike Nichols <1%
All other candidates <1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

5 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMCableDEMGromlichREPHeslopREPJohnsonREPNichols
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Conrad Cable$1,842,505.52
Matt GromlichNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Gordon HeslopNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Johnson$24,583,416.13
Mike NicholsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Conrad Cable$1,433,697.74
Matt GromlichNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Gordon HeslopNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Johnson$19,325,044.25
Mike NicholsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Conrad Cable$408,807.78
Matt GromlichNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Gordon HeslopNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Johnson$6,510,748.41
Mike NicholsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Conrad CableNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Matt GromlichNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Gordon HeslopNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mike JohnsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mike NicholsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Conrad CableNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Matt GromlichNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Gordon HeslopNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mike JohnsonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mike NicholsNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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