Race header
DEMOn the ballot
Antonio Wilson
—Not published for this candidate
DEMOn the ballot
Dan McKay
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
DEMOn the ballot
Pat Moore
—Not published for this candidate
REPOn the ballot
Austin Magee
—Not published for this candidate
REPOn the ballot
Gabe Firment
5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPOn the ballot
Michael Echols
81%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPOn the ballot
Misti Cordell
9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPOn the ballot
Oscar Dantzler
—Not published for this candidate
REPOn the ballot
Stewart Cathey
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
How this election worksLouisiana votes in an open primary on Nov. 3. If no one wins a majority, the top two go to a runoff on Dec. 12. Each Hume Outlook figure is the chance to win the seat, including that runoff, so Nov. 3 may not settle this race.
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
81% Michael Echols · RepublicanChance to win the seat across the named field, including a runoff if no one reaches a majority
REP
Michael Echols
81%
REP
Misti Cordell
9%
REP
Gabe Firment
5%
DEM
Dan McKay
3%
REP
Stewart Cathey
2%
All other candidates
<1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
9 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMWilsonDEMMckayDEMMooreREPMageeREPFirmentREPEcholsREPCordellREPDantzlerREPCathey
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Antonio WilsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Dan McKay$121,181.95
Pat Moore$23,053.55
Austin Magee$11,430.87
Gabe Firment$453,882.18
Michael Echols$3,188,839.56
Misti Cordell$658,608.43
Oscar DantzlerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Stewart Cathey$245,550.00
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Antonio WilsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Dan McKay$116,183.64
Pat Moore$18,908.24
Austin Magee$11,250.76
Gabe Firment$390,613.41
Michael Echols$2,299,887.86
Misti Cordell$458,430.06
Oscar DantzlerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Stewart Cathey$147,771.00
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Antonio WilsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Dan McKay$4,998.31
Pat Moore$4,145.31
Austin Magee$180.11
Gabe Firment$63,268.77
Michael Echols$888,951.70
Misti Cordell$200,178.37
Oscar DantzlerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Stewart Cathey$97,779.00
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Antonio WilsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Dan McKayNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Pat MooreNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Austin MageeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Gabe FirmentNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael EcholsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Misti CordellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Oscar DantzlerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Stewart CatheyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Antonio WilsonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Dan McKayNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Pat MooreNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Austin MageeNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Gabe FirmentNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Michael EcholsNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Misti CordellNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Oscar DantzlerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Stewart CatheyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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