LA Senate 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Jamie Davis

8%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Julia Letlow

92%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

92% Julia Letlow · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Julia Letlow 92%

DEM Jamie Davis 8%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+11 cycles 2020, 2024

Prior result, this seat REP 59.3% 2020 general · margin 40.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMDavisREPLetlow

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Jamie Davis$5,019,888.28

Julia Letlow$7,062,068.51

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Jamie Davis$3,764,959.76

Julia Letlow$6,618,898.57

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Jamie Davis$1,254,928.52

Julia Letlow$443,169.94

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Jamie DavisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Julia LetlowNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Jamie DavisR+11seat-level

Julia LetlowR+11seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2024

R+11

Lean (D minus R, points): -10.863
Presidential cycles: 2020, 2024
Computed: 2026-06-08

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2020 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
“Bill” Cassidy	REP	1,228,908	59.32%
Adrian Perkins	DEM	394,049	19.02%
Derrick “Champ” Edwards	DEM	229,814	11.09%
Antoine Pierce	DEM	55,710	2.69%
Dustin Murphy	REP	38,383	1.85%
David Drew Knight	DEM	36,962	1.78%
Beryl Billiot	OTH	17,362	0.84%
John Paul Bourgeois	OTH	16,518	0.80%

Total votes 2,071,543 · winning margin 40.30% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Percentages are of the MEDSL total, which also counts 53,837 votes on lines the data file does not list; the named-candidate shares are therefore lower than a share of valid candidate votes.

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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Louisiana · U.S. Senate · 2026