MA-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Massachusetts District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Richard E. Neal incumbent

84%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

INDOn the ballot

Nadia Donya Milleron

16%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentRichard E. Neal

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

84% Richard E. Neal · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Richard E. Neal 84%

IND Nadia Donya Milleron 16%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+9 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 62.6% 2024 general · margin 25.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMNealINDMilleron

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Richard E. Neal$3,112,617.01

Nadia Donya Milleron$1,585,489.10

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Richard E. Neal$5,095,425.77

Nadia Donya Milleron$1,288,433.58

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Richard E. Neal$1,878,102.25

Nadia Donya Milleron$310,205.12

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Richard E. NealNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Nadia Donya MilleronNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Richard E. NealD+9seat-level

Nadia Donya MilleronD+9seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+9

Lean (D minus R, points): +8.638

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Richard E. Neal	DEM	223,325	62.58%
Nadia Donya Milleron	OTH	133,552	37.42%

Total votes 356,877 · winning margin 25.16% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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