MA-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Massachusetts District 4 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Jake Auchincloss incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Thomas Stalcup

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJake Auchincloss

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Jake Auchincloss · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Jake Auchincloss 98%

REP Thomas Stalcup 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+12 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMAuchinclossREPStalcup

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Jake Auchincloss$3,935,406.36

Thomas Stalcup$26,619.26

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Jake Auchincloss$1,441,803.79

Thomas Stalcup$26,472.00

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Jake Auchincloss$7,476,829.34

Thomas Stalcup$147.26

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Jake AuchinclossNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Thomas StalcupNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Jake AuchinclossD+12seat-level

Thomas StalcupD+12seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+12

Lean (D minus R, points): +11.816

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Jake Auchincloss	DEM	289,347	100.00%

Total votes 289,347 · winning margin Not available of total

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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