MA-09 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Massachusetts District 9 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Bill Keating incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

R. Tyler Macallister

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentBill Keating

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Bill Keating · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Bill Keating 97%

REP R. Tyler Macallister 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+6 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 56.5% 2024 general · margin 13.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMKeatingREPMacallister

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Bill Keating$553,689.68

R. Tyler Macallister$215,467.33

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Bill Keating$758,937.14

R. Tyler Macallister$162,286.90

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Bill Keating$460,620.04

R. Tyler Macallister$53,180.43

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Bill KeatingNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

R. Tyler MacallisterNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Bill KeatingD+6seat-level

R. Tyler MacallisterD+6seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+6

Lean (D minus R, points): +6.057

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Bill Keating	DEM	251,931	56.52%
Dan Sullivan	REP	193,822	43.48%

Total votes 445,753 · winning margin 13.04% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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