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DEMNominee
Edward J. Markey
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Shiva Ayyadurai
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Joe Tache
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
John Deaton
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentEdward J. Markey
Hume Outlook
99% Edward J. Markey · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Edward J. Markey
99%
REP
John Deaton
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Markey 55.0% · Deaton 26.0%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov · 2026-10-18
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+14
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 66.3%
2020 general · margin 33.2%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMMarkeyINDAyyaduraiOTHTacheREPDeaton
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Edward J. Markey$5,985,385.37
Shiva Ayyadurai$245,728.59
Joe Tache$285,402.78
John Deaton$1,674,459.77
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Edward J. Markey$6,996,159.60
Shiva Ayyadurai$159,433.70
Joe Tache$261,622.99
John Deaton$1,186,303.41
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Edward J. Markey$799,912.74
Shiva Ayyadurai$85,152.41
Joe Tache$23,779.79
John Deaton$488,156.36
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Edward J. Markey55.0%University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov · 2026-10-18
Shiva AyyaduraiNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-18)
Joe TacheNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-18)
John Deaton26.0%University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov · 2026-10-18
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Edward J. MarkeyD+14seat-level
Shiva AyyaduraiD+14seat-level
Joe TacheD+14seat-level
John DeatonD+14seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Markey | Ayyadurai | Tache | Deaton | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 2026-10-07 to 2026-10-18 | LV · n=850 | 55.0% | not named | not named | 26.0% | none |
| Suffolk UniversityThe Boston Globe | 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-17 | LV · n=500 | 60.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 32.0% | none |
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovWCVB-TV | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-12 | RV · n=800 | 56.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 29.0% | none |
| MassINC Polling GroupCommonWealth Beacon | 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-22 | LV · n=800 | 52.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 26.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-21 | LV · n=564 | 53.0% | not named | 9.0% | 30.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-20 to 2026-08-24 | LV · n=881 | not named | not named | 16.0% | 25.0% | Seth Moulton 38.0% |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-20 to 2026-08-24 | LV · n=881 | 49.0% | not named | 7.0% | 30.0% | none |
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovWCVB-TV | 2026-08-05 to 2026-08-12 | RV · n=800 | 51.0% | not named | not named | 30.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-18 to 2026-06-23 | LV · n=623 | 50.0% | not named | not named | 34.0% | none |
| Suffolk UniversityThe Boston Globe | 2026-06-08 to 2026-06-12 | RV · n=500 | 55.0% | not named | not named | 30.0% | none |
4 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+14
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +14.086
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edward J. Markey | DEM | 2,357,809 | 66.29% |
| Kevin J. O'Conner | REP | 1,177,765 | 33.11% |
| Shiva Ayyadurai | OTH | 21,134 | 0.59% |
Total votes 3,556,708 · winning margin 33.18% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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