MD-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Maryland District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Dan Schwartz

14%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Andy Harris incumbent

86%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentAndy Harris

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

86% Andy Harris · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Andy Harris 86%

DEM Dan Schwartz 14%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+10 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 59.5% 2024 general · margin 22.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMSchwartzREPHarris

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Dan Schwartz$1,155,585.20

Andy Harris$2,703,695.73

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Dan Schwartz$1,160,058.29

Andy Harris$2,238,646.69

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Dan Schwartz$-4,473.09

Andy Harris$1,219,984.58

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Dan SchwartzNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Andy HarrisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Dan SchwartzR+10seat-level

Andy HarrisR+10seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+10

Lean (D minus R, points): -9.685

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Andy Harris	REP	246,356	59.51%
Blane H. Miller III	DEM	154,985	37.44%
Joshua W. O’brien	LIB	12,664	3.06%

Total votes 414,005 · winning margin 22.07% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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