MD-02 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Maryland District 2 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Johnny Olszewski, Jr. incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Dave Wallace

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJohnny Olszewski, Jr.

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Johnny Olszewski, Jr. · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Johnny Olszewski, Jr. 97%

REP Dave Wallace 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+8 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 58.3% 2024 general · margin 18.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMOlszewskiREPWallace

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Johnny Olszewski, Jr.$1,290,366.62

Dave Wallace$29,269.45

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Johnny Olszewski, Jr.$775,141.22

Dave Wallace$24,370.88

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Johnny Olszewski, Jr.$681,817.08

Dave Wallace$4,898.57

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Johnny Olszewski, Jr.Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Dave WallaceNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Johnny Olszewski, Jr.D+8seat-level

Dave WallaceD+8seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+8

Lean (D minus R, points): +8.374

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
John “Johnny O” Olszewski, JR.	DEM	223,797	58.27%
Kim Klacik	REP	152,079	39.60%
Jasen Joseph Wunder	LIB	8,169	2.13%

Total votes 384,045 · winning margin 18.67% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.