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Race · U.S. House · Maryland · 2026

Maryland District 8 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Maryland District 8

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Race header

U.S. House, Maryland District 8 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Jamie Raskin incumbent
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Nancy Wallace
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Cheryl Riley
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJamie Raskin

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
>99% Jamie Raskin · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Jamie Raskin >99%
REP Cheryl Riley <1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+30 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 77.0% 2024 general · margin 56.5%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMRaskinGRNWallaceREPRiley
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jamie Raskin$9,316,433.86
Nancy WallaceNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cheryl Riley$22,354.21
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jamie Raskin$6,369,064.72
Nancy WallaceNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cheryl Riley$20,252.10
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jamie Raskin$7,912,572.18
Nancy WallaceNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cheryl Riley$2,691.08
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jamie RaskinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Nancy WallaceNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Cheryl RileyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jamie RaskinD+30seat-level
Nancy WallaceD+30seat-level
Cheryl RileyD+30seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+30
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +29.534

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Jamie RaskinDEM292,10176.96%
    Cheryl RileyREP77,82120.50%
    Nancy WallaceGRN9,6122.53%

    Total votes 379,534 · winning margin 56.46% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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